Celia (that minx) beat me to the conventional wisdom, so I’ll skip right to the general election results and one up her by including the legislative “races to watch” feature 20 months in advance of hers.
The 2008 General Election Results:
Senator: Joe Biden
Congressman: Jack Markell
Governor: John Carney
Lt. Governor: Matt Denn
Insurance Commissioner: Some Democrat
2008 Legislative Races to Watch:
4th Senate Dist; Copeland leaves his seat open in order to have his ass handed to him by Carney. Some Republican wins the open seat. (no change)
17th Senate Dist: Without Vaughn to beat up on – Still’s record makes him the most hated man in Delaware. He is a slimy out of touch grandstanding douche bag and the Kent county Democrats are on a roll thanks to the leadership of Abbey Betts. (Dem Pick-up)
9th State Rep Dist: If Rebecca Walker decides that she wants it – it is all hers. (Dem Pick-up)
18th State Rep Dist: Someone is going to announce a surprise retirement a la Roger Roy- it might as well be Spence. (dems pick-up)
19th State Rep Dist: Someone is going to announce a surprise retirement a la Joe DiPinto- it might as well be Gilligan. (dems hold)
20th State Rep Dist: Manolakos is the “Chauncey Gardener” of Legislative hall. He is surprised to even be there. (dem pick-up)
25th State Rep: The R’s will run hard at freshman Kowalko, but to no avail. (dems hold)
27th State Rep Dist: Jaques strong showing proves that this district is ripe for the Democrats. Lofink retires or is beaten in the general. (dems pick-up)
31st State Rep Dist: Prameela Kaza decides to go again and makes Nancy Wagner the next Stephanie Ulbrich. (dems Pick-up)
33rd State Rp Dist: The R’s think they should have this one – but Walls is no dummy. He’ll cruise to re-election. (dems hold)
34th State Rep Dist: In a kind of mirror image of the 33rd, the Dems think this is winnable. It is not. (Republicans hold)
November 16, 2006 at 3:56 pm
Hey Einstine…
none of these are up for election in 08:
Senator: Tom Carper
Attorney General: Beau Biden
Insurance Commissioner: Some Democrat
Treasurer: Some Democrat
November 16, 2006 at 4:05 pm
Thanks for the catch Hap. I guess I got a little excited at the prospect of the absolute annihilation of the DE GOP.
November 16, 2006 at 4:11 pm
Insurance Commish is up in 08 – four year term from 2004
Also word on the street is that Markell doesn’t want Congress – maybe John will go that route.
November 16, 2006 at 4:23 pm
You’re delusional. Pleased to see nothing has changed.
November 16, 2006 at 4:57 pm
I agree with anon, except for the part where Carney gets a clue and runs for Congress. The Democratic Party in Delaware is as out of touch as the Republicans in Washington were before this election. The establishment is firmly committed to back Carney, and Markell is just as firmly committed to challenging him. It will be incredibly ugly.
For eveyone who isn’t a party regular, the choice is clear: Carney, who will owe everything to the party hacks who championed him, vs. Markell, who will owe them nothing. Which one sounds like a better bet for the citizens of the state? Which one sounds like a better deal for the members — are you reading this, union hacks? — of the Democratic Party?
November 16, 2006 at 5:22 pm
As a Republican we can only hope that JC is the candidate, we could win against him, Jack can raise the money he needs to win after the primary.
November 16, 2006 at 5:49 pm
“I’m a glorified phys-ed teacher, so it’s my turn!!”
- JC’s new campaign slogan
November 16, 2006 at 6:52 pm
Let’s see,
Governor, you only have to run every 4 years
Congressman, you have to run every 2 years
Governor, you get to go home to the wife and kids every night
Congressman, not so much
Governor, you are an executive with lots of decision making powers and room to develop programs
Congressman, you are a team player with no other team members from your state, not much in the way of sway
Governor, a good place for a presidential hopeful
Congressman, a bad place for a presidential hopeful
So why would Jack or John chose Congressman over Governor? It’s going to be very, very messy. I predict it will come down to natives versus newcomers. I think the newcomers outnumber the natives in New Castle County and that’s what counts statewide.
November 16, 2006 at 7:06 pm
Rebecca,
:):)
now that was some analysis.
you ought to be a party strategist
*wink*~~~*wink*
November 16, 2006 at 7:23 pm
The 2008 Democratic General Election Slate:
Senator: Joe Biden… unless he drops out early if you want to go to the Democratic Convention the favorite son is the way to go. I’m however for “WES CLARK for President 2008″.
Congressman: Dennis Spivack… He’s the only candidate in the race right now and I don’t expect him to back out. ALI v. FRAZIER II
Governor: Jack Markell… Anything can happen in a primary and have no question it will get nasty. That said R’s will be behind Copeland (DuPont) 100% it will be competitive.
Lt. Governor: Ted Blunt… Anything can happen in a primary but the city will go big for Blunt.
Insurance Commissioner: Pete Schwartzkopf… We need a down-stater to balance out the ticket.
2008 Legislative Races to Watch:
17th,10th,16th Senate Dist: Will be most likely be competitive.
9th,18th,27th State Rep Dist: Will be most likely be competitive again with repeat candidates as will DE-AL.
November 16, 2006 at 7:48 pm
Josh give me more on the 10th and 16th senate races. Why will they be the competive ones? I’m not as up on the Senate.
Markell vs. Carney? Nobody likes my solution? The bottom line: That is an open seat next time and Delaware is a blue state. The best positioned Dem gets the Job and Jack is the best positioned.
Now if someone came up to me and said “Cut out the bullshit – Jack is running for gobernor and he is going to win.” Then I’d stop talkign about for Congress.”
Until then – I’ll agree with Al. The Dem machine is still formidable. In passing on Castle this time, I’m thinking Jack may feel that discretion is the better part of valor.
I think we all agree – all the action is in the dem primary. If any R’s or I’s out there want to cast a meaningful vote they should consider joining the party of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.
November 16, 2006 at 8:15 pm
Someone should ask Coons to run for Castle’s vacated or still held seat. That would solve the open seat/blue state issue for you Jason.
November 16, 2006 at 8:34 pm
If Castle doesn’t run again (and despite the current speculation, I wouldn’t expect him to make any decision until early 2008), the race for the seat is wide open. In that case, Dennis Spivack will be brushed aside in favor of one of the party’s younger bucks — Denn and Coons, to name two. Despite Jason’s loyalty to him, he was viewed as nothing but cannon fodder this time around, and won’t have any backing to speak of against more established people who already hold public office. More interesting is who the Republicans might field. My guess would be someone like Paul Pomeroy, currently cooling his heels on Newark City Council. He’s both well connected and well regarded in the party, and is the closest thing the GOP has to a AAA player getting ready to move up to the big leagues. Of course, given how inept the state Republicans are, they might instead opt for some downstate hayseed who wouldn’t stand a chance north of the canal. Whether they realize the dangers of ceding power to the stump-jumper contingent is still an open question; we’ll get some clue about it when the House leadership fight is resolved.
November 16, 2006 at 8:54 pm
The 16th is probably noncompetitive I just loath Sen. Bonini. The 10th will be hyper-competitive as it’s parts of the 24th, 25th, 27th and 9th all largely democratic house districts. Sen. Amick is an empty suit and I’ve heard of a great recruit. The 17th because he’s he minority leader but only with the right candidate like a Bushweller rematch. The senate is horribly gerry-mandered just like the house it’s mostly safe seats for incumbents.
2006 was a year of unity. 2008 will be a large inter-party war at the rate it’s going. Just look at how many candidates are in for LG already. Sen. Peterson may jump into the fray for Gov. … Coons could run for congress but I don’t see it happening. I think he likes being County Executive. He has a lot more work to do their.
Anyway Dennis Spivack, is seeking the democratic nomination like it or not.
The other big question is what is Jack, running for. We’ll all find out soon enough.
Now back to being thanked 1 million times I’m to 250,000 thank you’s so far.
November 16, 2006 at 9:48 pm
Insurance Commissioner: Pete Schwartzkopf?!?! Uh, he has made it quite clear what office he is looking for in ‘08. So, as things stand right now, two of the Dem’s brighter stars will primary for Gov and THREE Dems will primary for Lt Gov. Republicans that resonate just might benefit after all in ‘08. Then again, the Gov part can all change if one of them runs for Rep.
November 17, 2006 at 4:20 am
Wasn’t Caleb Boggs predicted to win in what, 72. “it’s a slam dunk..Mr. President.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Caleb_Boggs
It is fun to speculate, but it is far too early to predict any outcome.
Let’s ask how many seats you would have gotten correct in this election cycle, if we held you to your post 04 musings?
November 17, 2006 at 7:20 am
The choice for Lieutenant Governor will belong in a large margin to the choice for Governor. While there may be a primary for the position, we’ll have to see who the candidates endorse. Denn’s likely a Carney guy, Pete Schwartzkopf is for Markell. All other possibilities will become evident as the race goes on.
November 17, 2006 at 12:23 pm
Umm…there is no point total for mustache rides in the physical fitness challenge. How will I get my medal through the mail?!
November 17, 2006 at 12:40 pm
someone told me that Castle has already filed for ‘08.
November 17, 2006 at 12:45 pm
if Coons wants a political future he will jump in 08. The county payroll is out of control with a bloated body count and automatic pay raises. Conty taxes are going to skyrocket as soon as the last of the surplusses are spent. (50-100% by 2010)
November 17, 2006 at 2:49 pm
Are you kidding me, Matt Denn is not a Carney Man…shows how much you know about Delaware Politics. Jack Markell practically was the unofficial Chairman of Matt Denn’s 2004 campaign.
Plus when I’ve talked to Denn, he has been an outspoken Markell man.
November 17, 2006 at 8:24 pm
Paul Pomeroy has said he wants to stay on the city council (he has a few young kids now) but I hope he can be talked into going further along.
He is great!!
November 18, 2006 at 7:42 am
Matt Denn was Minner’s legal counsel for three years – Minner is backing Carney. There’s the connection.
November 18, 2006 at 11:51 am
With that logic, anonymoose, Minner personally recruited and backed Schwartzkopf to run in 02, so he should be with Carney too, but he is with Markell.
November 21, 2006 at 8:19 am
None of the analysis provided here is very accurate or profound. The Weather Channel is more interestting.
Mike Protack
November 24, 2006 at 7:04 am
If Castle truely sits the next one out, Paul Pomeroy is the guy to beat. He is the kind of Republican would, like Castle, could clean out anyone the Democrats put up.